This post describes how I went about visualizing probability density functions of 3-dimensional Dirichlet distributions with matplotlib. If you're already familiar with the Dirichlet distribution, you might want to skip the next section.

## Rolling Dice

To understand what the Dirichlet distribution describes, it is useful to consider how it can characterize the variability of a random multinomial distribution. Suppose we are going to manufacture 6-sided dice. But for this example, we only want the allowable outcome of a die roll to be the number 1, 2, or 3. So when we produce a die, we will place the number 1 on two of the faces and likewise for the numbers 2 and 3. If we produce a "fair" die, then the probabilites of the three outcomes will be equal (the probability for each outcome will 1/3). We can represent the probabilities for the possible outcomes as a vector (\(\boldsymbol{\theta}\)):

\[\boldsymbol{\theta} = \left( \frac{1}{3}, \frac{1}{3}, \frac{1}{3} \right)\]

If we wanted to cheat, we could produce a "loaded" die, that gives us a higher probability of rolling a 3:

\[\boldsymbol{\theta} = \left( \frac{0.9}{3}, \frac{1}{3}, \frac{1.1}{3} \right)\]

Regardless of whether we produce a fair or loaded die, \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\) has two imporant properties. First, the sum of probabilities for each outcome must equal 1:

\[\sum_{i} \boldsymbol{\theta}_{i} = \boldsymbol{\theta}_{1} + \boldsymbol{\theta}_{2} + \boldsymbol{\theta}_{3} = 1\]

The second property is that none of the probabilities can be negative. When these conditions hold, probabilities associated with the results of rolling the die are described by a multinomial distribution.

Regardless of whether we are attempting to produce fair or loaded dice, there will be some variability in the characteristics of the dice we produce. So even if we try to produce fair dice, we won't expect that the probabilities of each outcome for a particular die will be exactly 1/3. If we were to hand-carve each die from a wooden block, we would expect significant variability in the dice we produce, due to the limitations of our craftsmanship, variability in the density of the wood, characteristics of the tools we use, etc. If instead, we were to use a fancy 3D printer to manufacture our dice, we would expect the resulting dice to be much more precise, having significantly less variability than our hand-carved dice.

To characterize this variability mathematically, we would like to know the probability (probability density) of every possible value of \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\) for a given manufacturing process. To do this, let's consider each element of \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\) as being an independent variable. That is, for \(\boldsymbol{\theta} = \lbrace \theta_{1} , \theta_{2} , \theta_{3} \rbrace\), we can treat \(\theta_{1}\), \(\theta_{2}\), and \(\theta_{3}\) each as an independent variable and \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\) as a vector in a 3-dimensional space. Since the multinomial distribution requires that these three variables sum to 1, we know that the allowable values of \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\) are confined to a plane. Furthermore, since each value \(\theta_{i}\) must be greater than or equal to zero, the set of all allowable values of \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\) is confined to an equilateral triangle (a 2-simplex) as shown below.

What we want is to know the probability density at each point on this triangle. That is where the Dirichlet distribution can help us. The Dirichlet distribution defines a probability density for a vector-valued input having the same characteristics as our multinomial parameter (\(\boldsymbol{\theta}\)). Let's start with the formula for the probability density associated with a Dirichlet distribution:

\[\text{Dir}\left(\boldsymbol{\alpha}\right)\rightarrow \mathrm{p}\left(\boldsymbol{\theta}\mid\boldsymbol{\alpha}\right)=\frac{\Gamma\left(\sum_{i=1}^{k}\boldsymbol{\alpha}_{i}\right)}{\prod_{i=1}^{k}\Gamma\left(\boldsymbol{\alpha}_{i}\right)}\prod_{i=1}^{k}\boldsymbol{\theta}_{i}^{\boldsymbol{\alpha}_{i}-1}\]

It's not important to understand the the formula in its entirety but a few details are worth noting. The Dirichlet distribution is parameterized by the vector \(\boldsymbol{\alpha}\), which has the same number of elements (\(k\)) as our multinomial parameter \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\). In our case, \(k=3\). So you can interpret \(\mathrm{p}\left(\boldsymbol{\theta}\mid\boldsymbol{\alpha}\right)\) as answering the question "what is the probability density associated with multinomial distribution \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\), given that our Dirichlet distribution has parameter \(\boldsymbol{\alpha}\)." Our goal is to visualize how \(\text{Dir}\left(\boldsymbol{\alpha}\right)\) varies over the simplex of allowable values of \(\boldsymbol{\theta}\) for a given value of \(\boldsymbol{\alpha}\).

## Setting up the Code

Before we can plot our Dirichlet distributions, we need to do three things:

Generate a set of

`x-y`

coordinates over our equilateral triangleMap the

`x-y`

coordinates to the 2-simplex coordinate spaceCompute \(\text{Dir}\left(\boldsymbol{\alpha}\right)\) for each point

There are numerous ways we could go about generating a set of points over the simplex. For example, we could randomly sample a uniform Dirichlet and map those points back to the `x-y`

space. But that approach can result in undesirable display artifacts near the simplex boundaries for small values of \(\boldsymbol{\alpha}\). As of version 1.3, matplotlib provides some convenient functions we can use for generating and refining triangular meshes. Let's start with the corners of our equilateral triangle and define a triangular mesh consisting of just a single element.

```
%matplotlib inline
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import matplotlib.tri as tri
corners = np.array([[0, 0], [1, 0], [0.5, 0.75**0.5]])
triangle = tri.Triangulation(corners[:, 0], corners[:, 1])
```

Next, we'll subdivide the triangle into a triangular mesh and plot the original and subdivided triangles.

```
refiner = tri.UniformTriRefiner(triangle)
trimesh = refiner.refine_triangulation(subdiv=4)
plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4))
for (i, mesh) in enumerate((triangle, trimesh)):
plt.subplot(1, 2, i+ 1)
plt.triplot(mesh)
plt.axis('off')
plt.axis('equal')
```

The mesh above is just an example - we'll use a much finer mesh for our plots.

Next, we need to map the `x-y`

coordinates of the mesh vertices to the simplex coordinate space (a.k.a. barycentric coordinates). There are several ways to perform this transform. I will use a simple method that uses vector algebra. For some values of \(\boldsymbol{\alpha}\), calculation of the Dirichlet pdf can become numerically unstable at the boundaries of the simplex so our conversion function will take an optional tolerance that will avoid barycentric coordinate values directly on the simplex boundary.

```
# Mid-points of triangle sides opposite of each corner
midpoints = [(corners[(i + 1) % 3] + corners[(i + 2) % 3]) / 2.0 \
for i in range(3)]
def xy2bc(xy, tol=1.e-3):
'''Converts 2D Cartesian coordinates to barycentric.'''
s = [(corners[i] - midpoints[i]).dot(xy - midpoints[i]) / 0.75 \
for i in range(3)]
return np.clip(s, tol, 1.0 - tol)
```

Having the barycentric coordinates for our simplex mesh vertices, we then need to compute the Dirichlet pdf values for these coordinates.

```
class Dirichlet(object):
def __init__(self, alpha):
from math import gamma
from operator import mul
self._alpha = np.array(alpha)
self._coef = gamma(np.sum(self._alpha)) / \
reduce(mul, [gamma(a) for a in self._alpha])
def pdf(self, x):
'''Returns pdf value for `x`.'''
from operator import mul
return self._coef * reduce(mul, [xx ** (aa - 1)
for (xx, aa)in zip(x, self._alpha)])
```

And lastly, we just need a function to draw the contours for a distribution. The function will draw pdf contours for a Dirichlet distribution where \(\theta_{1}\), \(\theta_{2}\), and \(\theta_{3}\) correspond to the lower left, lower right, and upper corners of the rendered triangle, respectively.

```
def draw_pdf_contours(dist, nlevels=200, subdiv=8, **kwargs):
import math
refiner = tri.UniformTriRefiner(triangle)
trimesh = refiner.refine_triangulation(subdiv=subdiv)
pvals = [dist.pdf(xy2bc(xy)) for xy in zip(trimesh.x, trimesh.y)]
plt.tricontourf(trimesh, pvals, nlevels, **kwargs)
plt.axis('equal')
plt.xlim(0, 1)
plt.ylim(0, 0.75**0.5)
plt.axis('off')
```

## Output

Let's start with a few symmetric Dirichlet distributions. The case of \(\boldsymbol{\alpha} = (1, 1, 1)\) yields a uniform distribution, where all points on the simplex are equally probable:

```
draw_pdf_contours(Dirichlet([1, 1, 1]))
```

For values of \(\alpha_{i} < 1\), the distribution concentrates in the corners and along the boundaries of the simplex.

```
draw_pdf_contours(Dirichlet([0.999, 0.999, 0.999]))
```

The color scale runs from dark blue (lowest values) to red (highest values). Notice in the plot above that only the corners of the simplex are red and intermediate values lie along the boundary of the simplex.

For values of \(\alpha_{i} > 1\), the distribution tends toward the center of the simplex.

```
draw_pdf_contours(Dirichlet([5, 5, 5]))
```

As \(\alpha_{i}\) increases, the distribution becomes more tightly concentrated around the center of the simplex.

```
draw_pdf_contours(Dirichlet([50, 50, 50]))
```

In the context of our example of manufacturing dice, we would produce consistently fair dice in the limit as \(\alpha_{i} \rightarrow \infty\).

For a symmetric Dirichlet with \(\alpha_{i} > 1\), we will produce fair dice, on average. If the goal is to produce loaded dice (e.g., with a higher probability of rolling a 3), we would want an asymmetric (noncentral) Dirichlet distribution with a higher value for \(\alpha_{3}\).

```
draw_pdf_contours(Dirichlet([30, 30, 50]))
```

Finally, here are a couple more, just to show how the distributions vary with \(\boldsymbol{\alpha}\).

```
draw_pdf_contours(Dirichlet([1, 2, 3]))
```

```
draw_pdf_contours(Dirichlet([2, 5, 15]))
```

If you would like to create these plots yourself, you can download a more readily usable version of the code used here.

As a final note, while I used the Dirichlet distribution as the prior for the multinomial distribution, it is not the only prior distribution that could be used. For example, the logistic normal distribution could also be used as a prior for multinomial distributions.